The psychology of scarcity

Why HYBE is limiting BTS’s return.

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Let’s dive into today’s topic:

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The psychology of scarcity

HYBE is testing a new model for BTS that relies on a psychological trigger.

Why it matters

Last week, news broke that HYBE is developing “a new experience model based on scarcity”, and it seems that the entertainment giant will test the model with the return of BTS, who just announced a new album and tour.

Strategising scarcity is not a new concept in the music industry; we’ve been selling out venues for centuries. Creating a situation where demand exceeds supply is a common practice to enhance market value. However, it’s worth noting that HYBE is explicitly highlighting this approach as a strategic shift to improve the fan experience.

The concept of ‘scarcity’ immediately brings to mind the work of psychology and marketing professor Robert Cialdini. His research explores why people say yes and how to utilise those insights. Cialdini discovered that, in general, people make irrational decisions that can be influenced by external factors.

In his famous book Influence (1984), Cialdini identified six principles of persuasion: Reciprocity, commitment and consistency, social proof, liking, authority, and scarcity. Later, in 2016, he added ‘unity’ as a seventh principle.

To understand what HYBE is working on, it’s valuable to understand Cialdini’s scarcity principle.

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How it works

We often assume fans want abundance, but psychology tells us they value exclusivity. Cialdini’s research highlights two forces driving this: Loss aversion (we fear losing out more than we enjoy gaining) and psychological reactance (we fight to retain freedoms when they are threatened).

Cialdini outlines specific tactics to trigger this response, which translate directly to music marketing:

The limited number

We value things that are running out. When a resource is finite, the pressure to act becomes immediate.

• Mechanism: Now or never pressure.

• Tactics: Never release open edition merch, print only 50 shirts.

The deadline

We procrastinate when time is infinite. A deadline forces a decision while the freedom to choose still exists.

• Mechanism: Time pressure.

• Tactics: Expire download or pre-registration links after 24 hours.

The competition amplifier

Cialdini notes that the scarcity principle is most explosive when we must compete for the resource.

• Mechanism: Seeing others reach for the same item validates our desire for it.

• Tactics: Announce low stock. Play smaller venues. Variable ticket pricing. Crashing websites. User-generated content.

Yes, but..

I find it highly questionable whether these FOMO tactics are ethical. Scarcity shuts down our logical thinking and replaces it with panic. It says a lot that websites like Booking .com rely heavily on personalised urgency and scarcity cues, such as “only one room left, book now,” in their behavioural marketing.

We can only hope HYBE has an eye for the ethical implications of exploiting scarcity. Fortunately, Cialdini recommends a two-step defence that helps to say “no”:

• Notice the rush: If you feel panic or desperate desire, stop and ask why you want it so much.

• Separate possession from utility: Do you want it for what it does or represents, or simply because of the thrill of buying or owning it?

Take action now

Imagine working at HYBE. Suggest the leadership three tactics for the BTS album campaign using Cialdini’s scarcity principle. Use it ethically.

Your thoughts

Further reading

• As K-pop superstars BTS return, HYBE CEO to test ‘scarcity’ model for fandom business (Music Business Worldwide)

• Cialdini, R. B. (1984). Influence: the psychology of persuasion.

• Bronzwaer, S., Rengers, M., & Kooiman, J. (2022). The machine. Overamstel Uitgevers.